with Auren
Hoffman
Month of July,
2002
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Summation Push Auren Hoffman's Summation Push for July, 2002 This issue: * Betting on the Future -- Introducing longbets.com * Expressions ... why the "800-pound" gorilla? * Europe's Turn to the Right ... and to Growth * Book Review: The Tipping Point -- by Malcolm Gladwell * Movie of the Month: In July (German film) * Reader Responses (Hunter Walk) * Friend of Auren: Gregory Slayton * Summation Push Pick Links * Hoffman Reading List -------------------------------- BETTING ON THE FUTURE By Auren Hoffman Think you have a grasp on the future? Want to put your money where your mouth is?
Then check out Longbets.com (http://www.longbets.com).
Here you will find hundreds of bets -- many not expiring for 20 years, on esoteric topics like when video-on-demand will be profitable or when the Red Sox will win the World Series (Ted Danson thinks the curse of Babe Ruth won't last long in the 21st Century).
Ray Kurzweil and Mitch Kapor have a $20,000 bet that by 2029, a computer will pass the "Turing Test" (essentially that computers will be able to impersonate a human). Kurzweil says yes, Kapor says no.
Martin Rees, a well-regarded Professor at Princeton, recently posted a scary bet:
"By 2020, bioterror or bioerror will lead to one million casualties in a single event."
His argument:
Biotechnology is plainly advancing rapidly, and by 2020 there will be thousands-even millions-of people with the capability to cause a catastrophic biological disaster. My concern is not only organized terrorist groups, but individual weirdoes with the mindset of the people who now design computer viruses. Even if all nations impose effective regulations on potentially dangerous technologies, the chance of an active enforcement seems to me as small as in the case of the drug laws.
By "bioerror", I mean something which has the same effect as a terror attack, but rises from inadvertence rather than evil intent.
I haven't taken him up on the $1000 bet, but my response is:
Biotechnology is advancing and it can be used as a potent weapon to kill millions of people in a single event. But I don't think it will.
Bio-agents are not analogous to computer viruses. The hacker community will never endorse bioterror -- destruction of human life is against a hacker's ethics code. Every computer virus was developed with the help of the institutional knowledge of thousands of hackers beforehand who collaborated on code. Community and collaboration are highly unlikely to occur in developing malicious bio-agents.
And though organized bioterror is certainly a possibility, it is actually really hard to do and bio-weapons plants can often be easy to spot. Even terrorists have a limit on evil. Remember -- no one has ever tried to poison or make-toxic the Jordan River (which would be catastrophic for Israel).
As for "bioerror," it is certainly a possibility, but also unlikely. Bio-agents have extremely safe precautions and storage systems.
Also, while both large scale bioterror and bioerror are possible, anticipating these attacks and developing antidotes are also possible. So don't head for the hills just yet.
Unfortunately, I fear that large scale disease and epidemics (like hunger, hepatitis, AIDS, Ebola, etc.) will continue to kill millions of people and decimate nations.
What are your thoughts?
(Bets for the future? Write auren@summation.net) -------------------------------- Send Summation Push to a colleague. -------------------------------- EXPRESSIONS ... WHY THE "800-POUND" GORILLA?
Why do we always use the expression the "800-pound gorilla"? Why not "700-pound" or "one ton"?
Why not a "two-ton-rhino"? I'd be a lot more scared of a two-ton rhino charging at me than an 800-pound cute gorilla eating bananas and playing with cute baby gorillas in the corner.
Why "20,000 foot view"? Why not "25,000 feet"? -- That's even better! More foot!
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EUROPE'S TURN TO THE RIGHT... AND TO GROWTH
Throughout Europe, people are throwing out liberal governments and installing center-right coalitions.
Though "center-right" in Europe is often times left of the Democratic Party, it still is a vast improvement over the draconian labor laws and onerous hindrances to growth put in place by Europe's various labor parties. Many pundits think center-right governments in Europe are winning due to anti-immigration or tough-on-crime policies, but these pundits are confusing politics of the "right" with the "center-right." The real reason why Europe is looking to new governance is because of simple economics.
Europe is looking to other countries that have experienced rapid growth -- countries like Ireland and Spain. Ireland and Spain are the two fastest growing countries in the European Union in the last five years. Ireland's growth has been tied to its lax paperwork, low tax rate, and progressive labor laws.
Spain, while still mimicking many of Europe's regressive economic laws, has been slowly reforming.
And until recently, Ireland and Spain were the only countries ruled by center-right parties.
Of course, others like Denmark and Italy followed. Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlosconi has been battling for months to change Italy's labor laws -- resulting in the recent assassination of Italy's Labor Minister.
In the last few months, we've seen both France and the Netherlands start to move in that direction. In Germany (who's elections are this fall), the center-right party is currently ahead in the polls. Greece also looks likely to follow to trend.
Is common sense finally winning in Europe?
I'm not so sure. The Mario Monti-types still reign in Brussels. But some progress is definitely being made.
Summation: Just like Margaret Thatcher and Helmut Kohl made Europe strong in the 1980's, we can hope for a new crop of leadership today to give Europe a bright future.
(Write your thoughts. Write auren@summation.net) -------------------------------------------------
Useless Fact:
"President Woodrow Wilson is the only U.S. President who had a PhD."
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BOOK REVIEW: The Tipping Point
How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference
by Malcolm Gladwell This little book looks at a range of epidemics -- from AIDS to Hush Puppies to crime to smoking to Sketchers. Ever wonder why a fad catches on? Ever wonder why some restaurants become all the buzz while others whither into obscurity? This is a great book to understand socials trends.
(To see more book reviews, check out the Hoffman Reading List at http://www.summation.net/reading.html) ----------------------------------------------------
MOVIE OF THE MONTH:
In July--(in German)
More info at: http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/InJuly-10001012/
-------------------------------- The objective of Summation is to READER RESPONSES AND OPINIONS I did not get very many good responses last month (maybe my writing is getting less interesting)...
Regarding last month's article on Reliability (see http://www.summation.net/Push0206.html) Hunter Walk remarks:
"Ah, reliability - one of my favorite topics. You're absolutely right - it's a binary quality and a rare trait. I call it 'the checkbox' - a colleague takes on a challenge and I can check it off as completed from the moment they commit."
(Write Auren your thoughts. Write auren@summation.net) -------------------------------- Send Summation Push to a colleague. --------------------------------
FRIENDS OF AUREN [this section updates you an interesting person
that is a member of Auren Inc] Gregory Slayton Gregory Slayton is always known as "the guy with the baseball cap." And he is.
Frequently sporting his "Silicon Valley for Bush" cap, Gregory is a fixture in both Silicon Valley and Washington DC. Gregory is an active Republican fundraiser and adviser to people like President Bush, Karl Rove, and Senator Pete Fitzgerald (R-IL).
Gregory serves as the Chairman of ClickAction (NASDAQ: CLAC) and before that was on the executive management teams of Paragraph International, Worlds Inc, and Paramount Technology Group. Gregory attended Dartmouth and Harvard Business School.
Gregory is also a political mentor to me and to the New Century Leadership Circle (NCLC).
See past profiled Friends of Auren at: http://www.summation.net/friends.html
-------------------------------- Send Summation Push to a colleague. -------------------------------- THIS WEEK'S SUMMATION PUSH PICK LINKS TO MAKE YOU THINK: * Corporate responsibility (http://www.fastcompany.com/keyword/ceos59) -- great article in Fast Company.
* R21 Online (http://www.r21online.com/) -- Chris Alden's blog page -- very insightful.
* Laffer Curve (http://bized.ac.uk/virtual/economy/policy/tools/income/inctaxth5.htm) -- good link I got off the R21 web site.
* Auren's Ryze page (http://www.ryze.org/view.php?who=auren) -- worth viewing.
* RSVP for the Party of the Decade (http://evite.citysearch.com/GGParty@eudoramail.com/2011Party) -- taking place on Nov 11, 2011.
*How to sell via e-mail (from the book "21st Century Selling") (http://www.summation.net/emailselling.html)
*What am I reading? The Hoffman Reading List (http://www.summation.net/reading.html)
NOTE: Auren Hoffman works for BridgePath.com but the opinions expressed
herein are solely those of Mr. Hoffman. NOTE: You may reprint in full or in part (for
free) with permission from author. Auren Hoffman's bio can be found at:
(http://www.summation.net/hoffman.html)
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