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GOVERNMENT 2000
The IRS and the FAA are in trouble

By Auren Hoffman

All indications suggest that the IRS will not even be close to completing their Year 2000 conversion by the next millennium. Though most people are not taking this seriously right now, in less than a year this might be the only thing that Washington will be talking about (besides scandals).

Without a conversation, the IRS may have trouble collecting income taxes on April 15, 2000. The system might break down even sooner if the conversation cannot handle the year change in time.

What does this mean for you? It won't mean you don't have to pay your taxes. The government will still make sure you pay up. It could mean, however, that you don't get what you pay for. The date error might cause delays in disbursements that might lead to the closing of national parks, postponement of highway contracts, and shutting down some other potential critical government resources (like social security and Medicaid).

The FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) is another disaster. They may have made less progress solving their Year 2000 problem than the IRS. If the FAA does not fix its computer system in time, planes in many US airports will not be able to take off or land. Talk about an economy-stopper. And if the system is only partially fixed, it might cause some accidents. My advice: cancel your flights for January, 2000.

If either of these events happen, look for the Dow to drop more than 1000 points over 6 trading days.

The government 2000 problems also might hurt Presidential Candidate Gore. Though the Vice President is a technophile and stresses "reinventing government," his lack of foreseeing the potential disastrous year 2000 crisis might be unforgivable. Forget Clinton scandal, forget the Veep's boring demeanor, it might be Y2K that brings Al Gore down.

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INDUSTRY INSIGHTS: Jeb's Site

I like Jeb Bush's web site (http://www.jeb.org). Bush, the second son of President George Bush, is making a second run for governor of Florida after his close race in 1994. Regardless of what you think of the guy (I like him), he's got a great web site.

Back in 1995, I designed Frank Jordan's re-election site (the San Francisco Chronicle called it the best election web site). Jordan ended up losing the election but the web site was used as a guideline for hundreds of other candidates across the country. Then Bob Dole made a stellar web site in 96 and became the trendsetter. Now Jeb Bush is setting the new web standard with on-line donations, ease-of-use, and other high tech features.

Though candidates with the better web site seem to lose the election, Jeb Bush is hoping the reverse that trend.

(all rumors and insights sent to auren@summation.net will be kept confidential)

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INDUSTRY INSIGHTS: Who's Better -- Excite or Lycos?

I'm starting to love both Excite and Lycos. Excite, making a string of acquisitions and partnerships is definitely on the right track (though my prediction of the acquisition of WhoWhere has not come true yet). Potential acquisition: Electronic Greeting Card company.

Lycos's acquisition of Tripod for $68 million was a cheap way to include an awesome community. With their recent investment in PlanetAll (one of my personal favorite sites), Lycos is also on the right path. Potential Acquisition: Direct News company.

So whom are we missing? Infoseek. They've been going nowhere. I don't even visit their site anymore. It is too bad because they originally had the early lead on all the search engines.

(All rumors and insights sent to auren@summation.net will be kept confidential)

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HOFFMAN SPAM INDEX:

Check out what's happening with Spam at:
http://www.summation.net/spam.html

The Hoffman Spam Index is updated weekly.

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